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I will share some of the inside information and experience I have learned from working as a bookmaker for eight years, hoping to provide some references for football betting fans, Increase win rate、winning odds.
Hello everyone, I’m Louis. Thank you for the invitation to the FootballAnt platform.
I will share with you some of the inside information and experience I have learned from working as a bookmaker for eight years, hoping to provide some references for football betting fans.
If you’ve only been betting with intuitive experience before, then after reading this article, I believe you will learn the importance of data analysis in betting.
Before this, I shared 1 article, “4 Best tips to know the winning team by odds” after the experience gained in this half year, today updated to 6 tips to share with you.
I added to the winning odds here, still drawing on the previous content.
In theory, if you look at more bookmaker data, the more accurate trend judgments will be, but human energy is always limited.
We must find the most successful and valuable ones, such as bet365, BetVictor, Crown, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Wade, Bwin, etc.
Speaking of which, I would like to give a thumbs up to FootballAnt. Their products also have a convenient significant data prediction function.
These features have helped me save a lot of time during analysis. With such a good tool, I hope everyone can learn to use it and improve the analysis efficiency.
AI prediction
This article will teach you how to make early warnings of abnormal changes in odds based on the data I have summarized in major bookmakers worldwide to improve the accuracy of predictions and win odds.
I will explain the specific analysis methods from four aspects:
- Monitor Odds
- abnormal odds warning,
- home/away warning, home
- away confidence
- draw a warning
- Contest Result Tips
I usually observe the changes in the odds within 5 hours of the start of the game. This is the peak of the betting volume, and it is the most valuable reference. I will combine some typical examples so that you can better understand them.
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FootballAnt will extract comparative probabilities and relevant data in close to 4 hours. Only this feature is only available for VIPs.
The campaign is very cheap, so if you are interested, you can buy a 1-week VIP trial, or by inviting your friends, you can also get VIP.
Rules of Invitation-Click here for the link to the campaign
1. Monitor Odds
Odds are designed, and the design of odds is a great invention.
In addition to the surface price characteristics, odds also carry a lot of data information in it, which is a vital information resource for us to analyze and predict the result of a soccer match.
The data information hidden in the odds is inherent to its delicate design, and once a set of odds is determined, other data is also determined with it, as long as we know what it means by proper calculation.
The actual data is essential for us to carry out odds statistical analysis, comparative analysis, analogous analysis, and odds identity analysis.
Odds
– is the betting deal agreed payout standard? Can you calculate the payout?
Every soccer match has the possibility of a win, draw, or loss, and there is only one sure result after the match is over (90 minutes plus injury time).
The player forms an agreement with the bookmaker by betting before the match, and after the match, the player guesses correctly.
The bookmaker pays out according to the odds agreed upon before the match: if the player is wrong, the betting money goes to the bookmaker.
The bet amount * the odds of guessing the correct result = the total amount paid out by the banker.
– represents the subjective view of the bookmaker on a ball game
The three decimals of a set of odds vary from high to low, directly expressing the bookmaker’s subjective opinion on the game. The apparent fact is that the bookmaker is willing to pay low rather than high, and the bookmaker favors the two outcomes with lower odds, which tells us to pick two of the three outcomes.
But the above is only one aspect of the matter. On the other hand, there is the issue of the total amount of payouts, which is precisely where the fundamental interest of the bookmakers lies, and which only the bookmakers are aware of and players are unlikely to be aware of.
The total number of transactions and the ratio of winnings invested is a trade secret of the banker, an absolute secret. As for the individual spinach company’s transaction data release also has its own unique background and should not be trusted.
You can only rely on other data for estimation, such as some betting tendency survey data, odds fractal statistics, etc.
– the dealer’s commission earnings plan – risky betting coefficient – waterline (S)
The author created the two words “waterline” and the following “inclusion rate,” and I think they are simple and easy to understand and remember.
The waterline is called the risky betting factor in Europe and is the level at which a bookmaker plans to charge a commission (water money) for a match. It coexists with a set of odds and is the sum of the reciprocal of the odds. Its level expresses the risk awareness of the bookmaker.
The sum of the inverse of the odds is greater than 1 because the bookmaker divides the player’s betting money into two parts before designing the odds: the commission and the payout.
This is because the bookmaker has divided the player’s money into two parts before designing the odds: the commission and the payout. The odds are designed to treat this payout only as a total amount of money 1.
If you think the above is complicated, you can understand that the odds represent the changes in the market, and you can understand the market changes by observing the odds.
Click here for detailed odds information for each game on FootballAnt’s details page.
2. Abnormal Odds Warning
The first is the early warning of abnormal odds. If the latest odds increase or decrease by 7% compared to 5 hours ago, you should make an early warning.
For example, in Eerste Divisie, SC Telsda(14th) vs Jong Ajax youth(4th). Before the start of the game, the odds of home winning suddenly decreased from 4.75 to 4.2.
winning odds
All the bookmakers are still unanimously optimistic about Ajax’s youth, but this significantly changed odds ratio is enough to show that Telstar has a considerable positive reason. This should cause sufficient vigilance. Sure enough, Ajax’s youth regretted losing the game by one goal.
Odds Change
3. Home/Away Warning
Next is an early warning for the home/away team. When the latest home win/away win odds increase by 7% compared to the odds 5 hours ago, and the home win/away win odds >2.0, then you need to be alert.
Let’s take the EFL Championship between Stoke City and Swansea as an example. Although Stoke City ranks high in the league, if we analyze the recent history, we can see that the home team has 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the past five games, and the state could be better.
Football Betting Fans
In terms of head-to-head, both teams have beaten each other, and the home team does not have much advantage. Before the start of the game, the odds of the away team increased from 3.4 to 3.75, which fully conforms to the away team warning.
As a result, the away team was suppressed throughout the game and finally defeated with a score of 3-0.
4. Home/Away Confidence
Similarly, let’s look at home/away confidence predictions.
If you understand the home/away warning, this part is also easy to understand. When the latest home win/away win odds decrease by 2% compared to the odds 5 hours ago, and the home win/away win odds ≤1.75, it conforms to the early warning of home and away win confidence.
Let’s analyze the Coppa Italia match between Juventus and Sassuolo.
The home-winning odds remained stable from the initial handicap two hours before the start of the match. They decreased to 1.3 directly before the beginning of the game, highlighting the bookmakers’ confidence in Juventus.
Throughout the whole game, Sassuolo’s ball possession rate was higher than Juventus, but Juventus’ offensive efficiency was higher, the two teams have not made any further achievements after 1-1 in 24 minutes, and Juventus finally completed a last-minute goal in 88 minutes.
Odds Fluctuations
5. Draw a Warning
The last part is a draw warning.
After summarizing the database of bookmakers I got before, the early warning value concluded as follows: when the latest odds of a draw decrease by 2% compared to the odds 5 hours ago, and the odds of a draw ≤3.20, there is a high probability of a draw.
The most representative recent match is Gabon and Morocco’s Africa Cup of Nations match.
On the surface, the difference in strength between the two teams is quite apparent. Eight Gabon players are infected with COVID-19, including Aubameyang.
With the odds of winning and losing basically unchanged, the draw odds decreased from 3.1 to 2.75. In the game, Morocco equalized the game twice after falling behind, finally drew 2-2 with Gabon, and the two teams entered the next round hand in hand.
Let me say a little more about drawing.
There are a lot of articles about the analysis of the odds of a tie (FootballAnt has some related analysis articles, which are also very well written), because the probability of a draw is inherently lower, and there are too many influencing factors.
the accuracy of the draw prediction will be lower than that of wins or losses, and even though many betting experts recommend giving up some unsure draw bets.
But if you see a match that you really want to bet on, and the strength of the home and away teams is very close, you can’t make a choice. At this time, the “draw warning” can definitely provide a considerable reference value.
Because looking directly at the changes in the odds is equivalent to putting aside all emotional analysis and now basing it on the trend of the bookmaker, which is sometimes more accurate.
Another most accessible way, of course, is to refer to the advice of other players or experts and filter through the leaderboard for recent wins and profitability rates.
Football Tips
Please pay attention to FootballAnt. Next time I have time, I will publish a follow-play advice and a follow-buy tutorial for newbies football betting fans.
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