Major League Baseball finally has its dream match-up in the World Series. Forty-three years since they last met in the Fall Classic, it is the New York Yankees versus the Los Angeles Dodgers. This will be the twelfth time they have meet. In the first seven meetings (from 1941 through 1956), the Dodgers were in Brooklyn.
A rivalry that featured baseball’s all-time legends of the past — Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, Yogi Berra, Jackie Robinson, and Duke Snider — will showcase today’s biggest baseball stars: Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Gerrit Cole, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman.
A Yankees-Dodgers World Series arrives at a critical time for the sport and the industry overall. The amount of households subscribed to cable television continues to lessen at an accelerated rate due to cord, cutting and streaming. As a result, the revenues long benefitted by the nation’s regional sports networks (RSNs) are not nearly as plentiful. For example, the once-lucrative RSNs currently known as Bally Sports (formerly known as Fox Sports Net) was valued at $20 billion back in 2018; CNBC reports the networks are now estimated to be worth just $600 million, a staggering 97 percent decline within a six-year span.
Those financials from cable would help formulate the budgets of the sports teams on those channels, the vast majority of them in smaller markets. With less money coming in, though, those budgets and salaries have been thrown in flux. It’s why executives are eyeing a nationalized media rights deal to help boost income.
While this issue also affects the NBA and the NHL, it primarily affects MLB because they preside over the most inventory of games each year.
For the past month, however, baseball has enjoyed more positive news thanks to its most prominent teams succeeding in the postseason. MLB’s League Championship Series averaged 5.35 million viewers, the preceding Division Series averaged 3.56 million viewers — each were seven-year high figures.
Boding well for the upcoming World Series, the June 8th and 9th contests between the Yankees versus the Dodgers provided the best regular season numbers for each Fox’s Saturday Baseball (2.91 million) and ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball (2.3 million) since 2022.
Another positive omen, although at a far too distant time, over two generations ago when baseball held much more prominence in the American zeitgeist: Yankees-Dodgers make up two of the top three most-watched World Series on record: 1978 (44.279 million on NBC; all-time high) and 1981 (41.370 million on ABC).
I inquired with professionals in the media industry to provide their ratings prognostications for the 2024 MLB World Series. Here is their analysis — you may also observe their guesses in numerical order:
Marc Berman, Editor-in-Chief of Programming Insider
13.72 million – These are two top market teams and the Yankees’ return to the World Series in 15 years. Sports, meanwhile, is still a hot ticket in this cluttered marketplace. So, it is logical to estimate well above last year.
Michael Kay, New York Yankees play-by-play announcer for YES Network and host of ESPN New York’s ‘The Michael Kay Show’
Yankees-Dodgers will be 14.1 million. Three of the biggest stars in the game — Judge, Soto and Ohtani — in this series and the allure of a traditional legacy matchup.
Chad Finn, Boston Globe sports media columnist
13.4 million — two huge markets, multiple superstars, a historic rivalry, and it’s going 7.
Jason Jacobs, Northwest Iowa Campus Radio 103.9 (KUOO) sports announcer
The return of the Yankees plus the LA market for the Dodgers pushes the World Series to its best ratings in a few years. 12.7 million. If it goes 6 or 7 games, it could go higher.
Rich Greenfield, Media and Technology Analyst at LightShed Partners
15 million – The biggest stars in baseball with the two biggest markets and the return of the Yankees to the World Series after an extended drought has all the makings of a tremendous surge in viewership.
Drew Lerner, co-host of Sports Media Watch podcast
It’s easy to be a broken record on this, but even with the best matchup MLB has had in many years, a truly absurd number will only happen if it goes 7. That said, this series has the juice. I’ll take a six-year high and say 14.6 million.
William Mao, Octagon senior vice president
20.3 million. Two of the league’s biggest starts, leading two of its most-storied franchises, representing the country’s two largest media markets. If there was ever a ‘script’ for Major League Baseball, this World Series matchup would be its big finish. I expect a long series full of fireworks.
Lori Rubinson, WFAN (New York) sports radio talk show host
15 million – Matchup of Ohtani and Judge and NYC and LA should mean it blows by last year’s viewership. If they get to Game 7, could spike to 20 million.
Andrew Marchand, sports media columnist for The Athletic
22M. If this series goes 7, I think the ratings will be excellent for baseball
Daniel Kaplan, sports business reporter at The Athletic
17-18 million million average. The variable here is of course the number of games, if it went to seven I’d expect this figure to rise. But the buzz that this series is going to set records I think it’s overplayed. I don’t see this series outpacing the 2016 one.
Jason Romano, Director of Media and podcast host with Sports Spectrum; former ESPN producer
This will be a World Series that rivals 2016 as far as interest and ratings. My guess is is 22.8 million if we get 6 or 7 games.
Evan Boyd, OptaSTATS researcher
With all due respect to the Mets and the Guardians, I think many have been waiting for a dynamic clash like the Dodgers and the Yankees. Two of the most popular franchises in baseball may also be two of baseball’s most hated, but what’s not to love about these two teams? Ohtani and Betts, Judge and Soto. MLB’s superstars showed up to this one. People will want to watch this because of the players. It also helps that this postseason has been excellent. We might even get a seven-game series, so I will say that an average of 19.2 million viewers will watch this one.
Lou D’Ermilio, LOUD Communications, former Senior Vice President of Fox Sports media relations
I’m predicting a six-game series with an average audience of 16.5 million viewers, which would make this the most-watched World Series since 2017. All the ingredients for a big number are in place: pedigree teams from the country’s two biggest media markets, with the game’s biggest stars going head-to-head.
Scott Nolte, Northwest Iowa Y100.1 FM (KUYY) deejay-sports announcer
16.8 million. We have two historic baseball teams in big market cities. The two teams have global superstars that will help increase numbers
Todd Radom, sports branding expert / designer / author
We’ve got star power, a wealth of history, two powerhouse fanbases, two gigantic markets, and unprecedented international appeal. And it should be a compelling, competitive Series. I’m taking the over with 20 million.
Bob Thompson, Thompson Sports Group LLC, retired President of Fox Sports Networks and BTN co-founder
20.7 million. Big markets and big stars, equals big ratings!
Maury Brown, Senior Contributor at Forbes
As with all things series play, a lot depends on whether it gets to a Game 7. But all things being equal, even with the two of — if not the — most storied brands in the two largest markets of the bicoastal variety, I don’t see it surpassing the viewership of the 2016 World Series between the Cubs and Cleveland. But, it’s going to be a very, very good year for MLB and FOX Sports. I’ll say it averages 20.3 million if it gets to a Game 7.
Michael Ingeri, Contributor to WFAN (New York) Sports Radio
I’m going 27 million 7 games
Peter Schwartz, WFAN (New York) sports radio anchor/host and host of The Double Chili Islanders Podcast and Sports Bash
We’re looking at 26 million because not only is this a traditional marquee Yankees/Dodgers matchup but it’s also a showcase for the two likely MVP’s and faces of the game Aaron judge and Shohei Ohtani.
Michael McCarthy, Senior Writer at Front Office Sports
With Ohtani, Judge, Soto and Betts, the World Series hasn’t featured TV draws like this in years. MLB’s two biggest teams from two biggest markets will average 24.0M over seven games.
Lee Arvoy, writer at TV Source Magazine
11.26 million. The two largest media markets plus Ohtani and Judge will help bring the numbers back up from last year.
Bill Shea, former senior writer at The Athletic
It’s the two largest media markets in a classic matchup between old rivals on hold since 1981 (and only the fifth NYC vs L.A. World Series since the Dodgers left Brooklyn in 1957). They each have national fanbases and the biggest stars dot the rosters, making Fox’s storylines almost too simple to foul up. If this is a thiller, I expect something closer to Chicago-Cleveland in 2016, so let’s say a 23 million linear/digital total average. If it’s one-sided and short, 15 million. As usual, all the caveats apply: Blowouts, sweeps, and missing superstars sap eyeball totals, as can major presidential election news as the political cycle enters its homestretch (thank god).
David Barron, former Houston Chronicle sports media columnist
16.2 million. There are sufficient individual standouts – Betts, Judge, Ohtani, Soto – to draw in Middle America for a Left Coast-Right Coast showdown – presuming viewers can stomach what will no doubt be a howl of full-volume political ads.
Steve Kaplowitz, afternoon sports talk radio host at 600 ESPN El Paso (Texas)
25.3 million across all platforms. This World Series has everything – the game’s biggest stars, most popular franchises on both coasts, and it’s the first time in 43 years that the Dodgers and Yankees have met in the Fall Classic. It won’t come close to the highest ever ratings from the late 70s (when the Yanks and Dodgers played), but it will be the most watched World Series in the last 25 years.
Dexter Henry, sports journalist for New York Post and Sportsnet New York (SNY); update anchor at WFAN (New York) sports radio; host of ‘NY Sports Rapid Rundown’ and ‘NY Got Game’ on YouTube; lead host of ‘Urban Fitness Xtreme’
19.5 million viewers. This is arguably the sexiest/most intriguing World Series matchup since the Red Sox battled the Dodgers in 2018 and I expect this series with 2 iconic franchise to go longer than 5 games with great intrigue for die hard and casual baseball fans.
Terence Henderson, T Dog Media
Two iconic teams from the two biggest markets in the country with two of the biggest stars in baseball (Judge and Othani) and only once they would have to face the NFL (Monday Night Football on Oct. 28), this is the best Fox could ask for as this will likely be the highest-rated World Series in years. I’ll predict 19 million viewers.
Jeff Agrest, Chicago Sun-Times deputy sports editor and media columnist
16 million – The markets, history and star power of these teams will draw viewership numbers not seen since 2017.
Jon Lewis, Sports Media Watch
This is a best-case scenario matchup, and not just because it’s New York vs. Los Angeles. The only things that could hold this series back are the schedule (four of seven games on Friday/Saturday) and a repeat of Dodgers-Mets where the games are all routs and the series really isn’t particularly competitive. With the LDS and LCS both at seven-year highs, I’m going with the most-watched World Series in seven years: 17.1 million over six games.
Jimmy Traina, writer at Sports Illustrated and host of SI Media Podcast
13.8 million. Big markets and big stars help. Lengthy series will help even more and this should go 6 or 7.
Jake Kline, attorney/sports media observer, JohnWallStreet contributor
MLB has gotten its ideal World Series matchup in Yankees-Dodgers. It goes without saying these two franchises have enormous fan bases. They helm from the two largest TV markets and are situated on opposite coasts. They also have a large number of haters who will tune in hoping to see them lose. This is the mountaintop.
Of course, while the moniker of “America’s Pastime” is still attached to MLB for nostalgic purposes, in actuality this no longer is the case as football—both NFL and college—have much greater national engagement. Nonetheless, this is the best case scenario MLB could ask for in today’s media landscape. Indeed, ESPN MLB Insider Jeff Passan called it “a litmus test for how big Major League Baseball’s national audience actually can get”. The question is, in today’s fractured media environment what is MLB’s max?
This year’s Fall Classic has the largest and arguably most talented baseball star in the world, Shohei Ohtani. Side note: the viewership numbers in Japan are going to be immense despite the local early morning start time. Ohtani isn’t the only big name here, though: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Mookie Betts likewise draw eyeballs.
The ’24 MLB postseason has performed quite well. Both the Division Series and League Championship Series hit seven-year viewership highs. Of course, having big name teams residing in big markets helps. We’re gifted with such a matchup in the final round.
Similarly, generally speaking there appears to be a renewed enthusiasm in watching sports. The Olympics were a hit, the NFL has had another strong season (which will get even better with the added MNF ABC simulcasts), realignment in college football has resulted in matchups that bring the viewers in, and the WNBA reached new heights. Expect MLB to ride this wave too. It seems people are more than happy to embrace the chaos of October / early November US sports. The recent changes to how Nielsen calculates their numbers also benefits these properties.
Fox of course would like the series to go on for as long as possible, as more nights equals more ad inventory. Undoubtedly a Game 7 would be the most-watched game of the series and would boost the average. Only Game 3 goes up against the NFL, a MNF contest between the Giants and Steelers (if the League Championship Series had concluded earlier, World Series Game 5 would have gone up against Cowboys-49ers on SNF, a more attractive football matchup).
Caveats as always apply. Both teams play outdoors, so there’s the possibility weather could change the series schedule or push games deeper into the night. Breaking news regarding the election or other world events likewise could put a dent into viewership.
The 14 million who watched Red Sox-Dodgers in 2018 serves as an informative datapoint. However, that series only lasted five games and wasn’t particularly compelling to the casual fan. That being said, viewing habits have changed considerably in six years and the number of television households have declined. However, this time there seems to be more fervor. Don’t discount the fact that these two cities have large Hispanic populations—that should help Fox Deportes, bearing in mind the channel has somewhat limited reach. Considering all this, a five-to-six game series should command an average of around 16.4M across domestic linear and streaming; a seven-game series 17.8.
Eric Fisher, writer at Front Office Sports
I’m thinking 18.5.
Jay Posner, former sports editor of San Diego Union-Tribune
17.8 million — Several superstars and a long series add up to Fox’s best number in several years.
Ken Fang, associate editor of Awful Announcing
Viewers for the World Series has trended downwards over the last three years with 2023 averaging under 10 million viewers, 9.29 million to be exact on Fox and its various platforms. But 2024 will see an upward swing for the Fall Classic. For Yankees-Dodgers, we have a truly national matchup, one that is on a par with Celtics-Lakers in the NBA. Fox should see a World Series that will average above 15 million viewers for the first time since 2017 when Houston-LA Dodgers averaged 18.9 million. For 2024, Fox will average 15.7 million viewers in what should be a six-game series that will see the Dodgers win their second championship in five years.
Richard Deitsch, sports media columnist at The Athletic and host of the Sports Media podcast
As always, length is what will determine whether this is a truly special series from a viewership perspective. On paper, it has everything. I think it goes at least six games. 18.1 million.
Ryan Glasspiegel, New York Post sports/entertainment reporter
I’ll go 20 million average.
Michael Fliegelman, WFAN (New York) sports radio producer/host
17.5 million. MLB and FOX got the matchup they’ve wanted for years and the series will live up to the hype. It goes the distance and game 7 blows the viewership number up to an average baseball will likely never see again.
Dan Serafin, News 12 The Bronx/Brooklyn news & sports anchor
The perfect circumstances for baseball in every way, I’m going to predict that the play on the field will push even more interest throughout the series and we’ll see a number we haven’t in a few decades, 25 million viewers.
