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The Super Bowl is easily the biggest wagering event of the year. However, with so many betting options, it can be confusing to bettors. Safest Betting Sites has a complete guide on NFL Betting that can give you a massive walkthrough on how to place the proper bet for the Super Bowl LV.
How Did We Get Here?
In what was an entertaining and high-scoring NFL season, two of the most popular teams (and quarterbacks) emerged as contenders for the title. Per BetNow.eu Sportsbook, Kansas City was the preseason betting favorite to win the Super Bowl at +650 (or 6.5 to 1), while Tampa Bay was given the 5th-lowest odds at +1500 (or 15 to 1).
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs started the season strong and have not looked back, losing only two games all year, and have continued to ride that momentum through the playoffs.
Tom Brady and the Buccaneers took a slightly different route to the Super Bowl.
They had a 7-5 record at one point and were in danger of missing the playoffs but reeled off four straight wins to claim a wild card spot. From there, they pulled off an impressive feat, managing to win three straight road games to reach the SB.
Super Bowl Odds
The Chiefs opened as 3-point favorites as they were wrapping up their win over Buffalo in the AFC Championship game. There has been little movement in the spread so far, and it remains to be seen if any late money will push this line in either direction.
The game total opened at 56.5 and was quickly bet down to 56 but has remained there since. With two high-scoring teams and two fan favorites at quarterback, I would not be surprised to see this total tick up a few points by kickoff. If you like the game to go over the total, I would suggest betting it now.
Super Bowl Prop Betting
Proposition bets (or props) are bets made on events in a game that are not tied directly to the outcome. They are similar to the side bets commonly found in table games like blackjack, craps, and roulette.
The standard markets for most games are player props and game props. Player props are all about individual achievements, like whether a running back will score a touchdown or a quarterback will throw for a certain number of yards. Game props are more team-oriented and include things like “Which team will score first?” or “Will there be a score in the first 5 minutes of a game?”.
When it comes to prop wagering, the SB is undoubtedly the most significant event in all sports.
In addition to the standard prop markets, the SB is famous for its massive collection of novelty props, with exotic bet offerings like the length of the national anthem, the color of the liquid dumped on the winning head coach, or my personal favorite, “How many commercials will have a dog in it?”.
What to Bet On
With so many prop markets available, there are many ways to find betting angles that sportsbooks may have overlooked in their mad rush to pump out all of these options to the masses.
Here is an example below that shows how overall stats for a player may not always tell the whole (or correct) story and how you might use that to your advantage.
Patrick Mahomes has six rushing touchdowns in 46 regular-season games over the last three years. That works out to a pretty mediocre 13% game where he finds the end zone. But in the playoffs, he has 4 TDs in 7 games, 57% of the time.
Yes, the sample size is small, but his rush attempts and rushing yards have also increased in the playoffs, so you could make the argument that he is more likely to run (and score) in the playoffs vs. the regular season.
The prop bet “Mahomes to score a rushing TD” is priced in the +250 to +300 range. If we use +275 as our average for this example, the sportsbooks imply that he has a 27% chance of running for a touchdown.
If you think (and I do in this case) that the actual chance of this occurring is higher than 27% based on the information above, then this is a bet you would want to make.
As always, you want to shop around for the best odds and maybe even ask a buddy or two if they have seen a better price. With +300 being offered at some books, you do not want to be taking +250 as you are essentially giving up $50 of profit on a $100 bet.
How NOT to Bet on the Super Bowl
One thing you do NOT want to do is try to strike it rich betting on the SB. Everyone wants to be the guy who turns a $50 parlay into $20,000 to flex on Twitter or Instagram. But the fact is that 99.99% of the time, those parlays end up as losing bets.
Another thing to avoid has too many bets that are dependent on a similar outcome. For example, if you took the Over on the following bets:
- Mahomes 330.5 passing yards
- Mahomes 2.5 TD Passes
- Travis Kelce to score a TD
- Tyreek Hill to score a TD
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire to score a TD
It might seem as if you are spreading out your action, but you would need a monster game from the Chiefs to cash all of these bets. Even if the Chiefs have a “normal” game by their standards, you could quickly lose 3 or 4 of those, and in a bad game, you might be lucky to win one.
Where to Bet the Super Bowl
You can’t go wrong with many of the big-name offshore sportsbooks, but my personal favorite is BetOnline.
Depositing and withdrawing are lightning-fast and easy if you use Bitcoin, and they have perhaps the most extensive menu of bets for the big game, including the dog prop referenced above. They also have the Prop Builder tool (under Player Props) that allows for more customization and parlays on props than you would typically find for prop bets.
