The Houston Astros Are Back Again in The World Series, Meeting Surprise Pennant Winner Philadelphia Phillies — What TV Ratings Are Expected?

The final week of this memorable Major League Baseball season commences this Friday, Oct. 28 with Game 1 of the World Series. It was a year chock full of big moments, from Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge surpassing Roger Maris’ legendary single-season American League home run mark to future Hall of Fame Cardinals slugger Albert Pujols rediscovering his youth and storming past the 700 career home run threshold, and then, to the N.L. East division title decided on the season’s final weekend where the two rivals Mets and Braves faced off in Atlanta.

Despite a 12-percent year-to-year slide for baseball on the Fox broadcast network (2.11 million in ’22, vs. 2.4 million in ’21 — info compiled by Sports Media Watch), other outlets experienced growth including ESPN (+1 percent), TBS (+24 percent) and several regional sports networks around the country like Yankees’ YES Network (its most-watched season since 2011) and Rangers’ Bally Sports Southwest, significantly up double-digits despite the team’s underwhelming play — a reflection of their active offseason last winter

This was also the first season MLB extended its streaming footprint by airing games weekly on Apple TV, Peacock and in the New York metro area for twenty-one Yankees games, Amazon Prime. While no viewership data had been released for any of those services, its audiences are presumed to be younger compared to linear and over-the-air platforms — the targeted crowds MLB (and any other sports or entertainment entity) are seeking to attract.

While we’ll remember 2022 for its many historic moments, it’s simple to forget the very fate of the season was in flux back in March, thanks to the winter-long owners’ lockout. But coming out of that owners-players dispute (along with the start of new TV deals) was the expansion of its postseason from ten teams to twelve. Disney-owned ESPN, home of “Sunday Night Baseball”, was the beneficiary of the new playoff system going from airing only one sole winner-take-all Wild Card game per year to four best-2-of-3 Wild Card series.

The nine Wild Card round games this year averaged 2.8 million viewers per minute. That’s up big from the 1.7-million average of the 2020 first-round format (similar to the current setup). But it was far less than the many single Wild Card games in previous years which drew north of 6 million apiece, as evidenced by those involving either of the New York baseball teams including 2021’s Yankees-Red Sox October playoff contest (7.7 million). No surprise that in this past month, the New York Mets’ three-game series versus the eventually victorious San Diego Padres was the most-watched of all four Wild Card matchups; the deciding Game 3 of Padres-Mets (3.96 million) led that group.

The Division Series averaged 3.45 million viewers — baseball’s best figure for that round in five years. Roughly five million viewers checked out both League Championship Series — way up from the pandemic-affected ’20, and on-par with LCS rounds from ’19 and ’21.

Nonetheless, it remains to be seen if these increases will translate into positive Fall Classic numbers. After all, the nation’s top two markets had a vested interest in these playoffs with the participation of the Yankees, Mets and Dodgers — all three of those teams eliminated prior to the World Series.

Houston is also a top-ten market in the nation, and home to its Astros, the current gold standard of baseball organizations. They’re built an impressive playoff resume in recent Octobers, appearing in six consecutive ALCS, resulting in four World Series berths and one world championship (thus far). And, their four-game sweep of the New York Yankees in the American League Championship Series was the most-watched series of the postseason (at about 5.2 million).

The Astros are beloved in its Houston hometown; an example of that is, by mid-July, they were up 8 percent in households on local network AT&T SportsNet Southwest (as reported by Forbes’ Maury Brown).

Of course, they’re also despised most elsewhere, thanks to its 2017 sign-stealing cheating scandal.

Has Houston risen to the level of being a premier team one must watch to either love or love to hate? The New England Patriots of the NFL went through similar infamous circumstances — a long run of great seasons beset by cheating scandals during their championship success. But it being the league in this football-obsessed nation made the Patriots a main draw, becoming a must-see villain especially during their Tom Brady years. For most of the past two decades, New England was scheduled in to many marquee time slots by the networks. The same cannot be stated for MLB’s Astros. ESPN’s “Sunday Night Baseball” averaged 1.5 million viewers; Astros’ lone SNB slot came on June 19 vs. the Chicago White Sox — that game drew 1.1 million viewers.

The Phillies, hailing from another top-ten TV market, share some ratings similarities with their World Series opponent Astros. Philadelphia also achieved 1.1 million for its top regular-season ESPN game of 2022, way back on Apr. 20 (vs. Milwaukee). On its regional sports network NBC Sports Philadelphia, the Phillies were up 25 percent from its previous year (thru mid-July) despite a mediocre first-half of its season. And, the Phillies and Astros were part of Fox’s fourth-best baseball date of the season, from Saturday, Aug. 20. That edition of “Baseball Night in America” drew an above-average 2.6 million viewers. However, the Phillies’ opponent that night were their N.L. East rival New York Mets — a matchup seen by most of the country; in other markets, Fox stations aired the Astros versus defending world champion Atlanta Braves. It’s most likely the New York area provided that extra boost in viewership.

That same New York boost also contributed to this year’s ALCS number with the Yankees involved. Audience figures decelerated as the series progressed, as the Astros’ dominance over the Yankees became apparent — well above five million for Games 1 and 2; below five million for Games 3 and 4.

And lastly, what Philadelphia and Houston also dubiously shared: almost all of their playoff games were relegated to daytime hours, its early round games hovered in the 2.5-3.5 million viewer range, below the aforementioned playoff round averages.

In the case of this year’s Phillies, it was an understandable decision by the league and its TV partners to not air them in most prime slots. The Phillies would not have qualified for the playoffs, if not for its expansion. They were a middling team throughout the months of April and May which led to the firing of manager Joe Girardi. Then, their fuse got lit, going 65-46 the rest of the way under interim manager Rob Thomson (like Girardi, another former Yankees staffer). Philadelphia, having broken their 11-year playoff drought, has lost just two of the eleven games played this postseason, led by the extraordinary hitting prowess of superstar Bryce Harper — a guy who had been previously viewed as a playoff under-performer while with the Nationals; a view made even more glaring in 2019 (the first year of his 13-year/$330 million contract with Philadelphia) when Washington won a World Series without him.

Harper’s 18 hits these playoffs, including the NLCS–clinching 2-run home run in Game 5 vs. the San Diego Padres, leads all players; and, based on research by TruMedia Sports, since 2008, Harper has achieved the highest batting average (.419) and on-base-plus-slugging (OPS) percentage (1.351) among all 339 players that had at least 40 plate appearances in a single postseason.

Only one other team has been hotter than the Phillies: the Astros, of course. They’ve not yet lost a playoff game. What might stymie the Phillie bats of Harper and company could be Houston’s premier pitching. They’ve already well handled some of the league’s best hitters, including presumed American League rookie of the year Julio Rodriguez in the Division Series (4-for-16, .250), and presumed American League MVP/newest A.L. single-season home run record holder Aaron Judge in the League Championship Series (a dismal 1-for-16, .063).

The Astros’ current streak is made more impressive considering their biggest star, second baseman Jose Altuve, has been a huge bust at the plate thus far: a mere 3-for-32 (.094) with three walks. Even Yordan Alvarez, arguably their best overall hitter this season and whose walk-off 3-run home run won ALDS Game 1 for Houston over Seattle, has been somewhat mortal this October by hitting 7-for-29 (.241) with four walks.

If the Astros do win this year’s World Series, it will finally earn manager Dusty Baker (perhaps, the team’s only generally well-liked member) a world championship ring — the very first of his long, storied career in baseball that spans six decades.

Douglas Pucci’s take: The presence of Baker and Harper might be enough for baseball’s fervent fans to watch this World Series. Fox, the broadcast network for the World Series, will also be pleased that teams from two well-sized markets are involved. But the scant appearances of the Astros and Phillies in marquee windows this past season limited their general exposure to a nationwide audience. 12.2 million saw last year’s Braves-Astros Fall Classic on all Fox platforms. This year, Astros-Phillies — likely, a short series with Houston winning in five games — will be down but not by much: 11.1 million viewers.

I inquired with professionals in the media industry to provide their ratings prognostications for the 2022 MLB World Series. Here is their analysis — you may also observe their guesses in numerical order:

To recap, here are the predictions in sorted order (you may click on their name for their respective analyses)