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Predict the Ratings for Super Bowl Night 2016

Television’s biggest annual event arrives this Sunday on CBS with Super Bowl 50 between the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos.

With the exception of the Super Bowls from Feb. 2005 and Feb. 2013, since 2002, the average viewership of a Big Game telecast has seen an increase from the previous year’s edition. In 2010, the Saints-Colts matchup on CBS was the first Super Bowl to outdraw the previous all-time most-watched telecast, the series finale of “M*A*S*H” from 1983. Since that historic ratings feat, every Super Bowl thereafter has bested “M*A*S*H” exhibiting the impressiveness of the draw the game.

Super Bowl Viewership Track (in millions; average number of each telecast)

XLIX: New England vs. Seattle (NBC Sun Feb 1 2015): 114.44

XLVIII: Seattle vs. Denver (Fox Sun Feb 2 2014): 112.19

XLVII: Baltimore vs. San Francisco (CBS Sun Feb 3 2013): 108.69

XLVI: N.Y. Giants vs. New England (NBC Sun Feb 5 2012): 111.35

XLV: Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh (Fox Sun Feb 6 2011): 111.01

XLIV: New Orleans vs. Indianapolis (CBS Sun Feb 7 2010): 106.48

XLIII: Pittsburgh vs. Arizona (NBC Sun Feb 1 2009): 98.73

XLII: N.Y. Giants vs. New England (Fox Sun Feb 3 2008): 97.45

XLI: Indianapolis vs. Chicago (CBS Sunday, Feb 4 2007): 93.18

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Networks that air the Super Bowl also strategically schedule a program they most want to highly profile immediately after the Big Game. Sometimes the decisions succeed spectacularly (“Friends”, “The A-Team”, “The Wonder Years”, “Grey’s Anatomy”, 2 season premieres of “Survivor”) but most do not (“Macgruder and Loud”, “Grand Slam”, “Extreme”). This year, CBS went unconventional by airing their long-running late-night franchise “The Late Show.” Stephen Colbert officially took over from the legendary David Letterman as its host on Sep. 8, 2015.

Post-Super Bowl Program Viewership Track (in millions; average number of each telecast)

The Blacklist (NBC) Sun Feb 1 2015: 25.72

New Girl (Fox) Sun Feb 2 2014: 26.30

Elementary (CBS) Sun Feb 3 2013: 20.80

The Voice (NBC) Sun Feb 5 2012: 37.61

Glee (Fox) Sun Feb 6 2011: 26.80

Undercover Boss (CBS) Sun Feb 7 2010: 38.65

The Office (NBC) Sun Feb 1 2009: 22.91

House (Fox) Sun Feb 3 2008: 29.05

Criminal Minds (CBS) Sun Feb 4 2007: 26.31

Alias (ABC) Sun Jan 26 2003: 17.36

Friends (NBC) Sun Jan 28 1996: 52.93

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The late night slot on the night of the Super Bowl has also shown to be lucrative. “The Tonight Show starring Jimmy Fallon” nearly nabbed an average of 10 million viewers there in 2015. This year, the 11-month old “The Late Late Show with James Corden” gets the spot. It will be the second time “The Late Late Show” will air on Super Bowl night; the Craig Ferguson-hosted version aired in 2013 past 12:40 a.m. due to the power outage in Super Bowl XLVII which stopped that event for about 45 minutes. Of course, Corden (and CBS) hopes this year’s Big Game runs smoothly so such delays won’t occur.

Late Night on Super Bowl Night Viewership Track (in millions; average number of each telecast)

The Tonight Show (NBC) Sun Feb 1 2015: 9.8

The Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson (CBS) Sun Feb 3 2013: 4.43

Late Night with Jimmy Fallon (NBC) Sun Feb 5 2012: 6.17

Jimmy Kimmel Live (ABC) Sun Jan 26 2003: 4.8

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